Global Food Security Threatened by Severe Weather, Conflicts, and Supply Chain Disruptions

Global food security is facing severe pressure worldwide as a combination of violent conflicts, extreme weather events, and fractured trade routes threatens agricultural production, according to reporting from France 24 published on September 17, 2026. Experts warn that agricultural output and international trade are being severely tested by overlapping crises, including ongoing wars and forecasts for a powerful weather pattern that could impact future harvests.

Among the primary concerns facing the global agricultural sector are forecasts by experts predicting a super El Niño. Such an event could further disrupt critical planting and harvesting cycles across multiple regions, potentially pushing millions of additional people into acute food insecurity. These weather-related threats coincide with active geopolitical conflicts that are actively disrupting vital shipping lanes and international supply chains.

Despite worries over physical crop shortages, agricultural experts emphasize that the core problem lies in distribution and logistics rather than a total lack of food. Shawn Arita, an Associate Research Professor at North Dakota State University, highlighted the distinction during an interview with France 24's People & Profit show, stating that transport problems currently outweigh basic supply concerns.

According to Arita, the physical food exists and overall availability is present, but the movement of goods is broken. This logistical breakdown is heavily influenced by geopolitical conflicts, specifically ongoing wars involving Iran and Ukraine, which have created severe bottlenecks in global shipping and trade networks.

A critical focal point for agricultural inputs is the Strait of Hormuz, which Arita described as a vital "fertilizer corridor" essential for farmers around the globe. Prior to 2026, approximately one-third of globally exported fertilizers passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption of this crucial maritime corridor is transmitting immediate pressures through the supply and yield sides of agriculture.

These logistical and material constraints are putting sustained upward pressure on prices for essential commodities, including cereal and grain. The financial strain is ultimately reverberating throughout the entire global food system, affecting major agricultural producers across the world as input costs rise.

Arita noted that elevated prices for both fertilizer and energy will continue to weigh heavily on agricultural output moving forward. When farmers face weak or negative profit margins—a situation currently observed throughout the United States and for many agricultural producers globally—the resulting financial depression leads directly to reduced planting and lower overall food production.

The combination of compromised shipping corridors, soaring fertilizer costs, squeezed profit margins, and looming climate disruptions highlights the fragility of contemporary agricultural supply chains. While the world's underlying capacity to produce food remains substantial, the systemic barriers preventing those resources from reaching markets efficiently present a persistent challenge for international food security.

As monitoring continues, international observers and agricultural economists remain focused on how transport corridors evolve and whether forecasted weather phenomena will materialize to impact upcoming agricultural cycles. Further updates regarding global trade routes, regional conflicts, and harvest forecasts are expected as the situation develops.